Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Lower home prices, again

Year-over-year median home prices in Pierce County declined for the third consecutive month in November as sales remained slow.

Countywide, the median price dropped 4.4 percent to $262,950, according to figures released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Sales of homes, including houses and condominiums, decreased by 31 percent for the same month in 2006.

Such declines come as home sales enter the traditionally slower holiday period in a market agents say is adjusting to tightened lending guidelines and hesitant buyers. Prices in other markets around the nation have seen steeper price declines starting several months, and in some cases, years ago.

Year-to-date prices, however, remain up through November, buoyed by a start to the year that was stronger than recent months. Pierce County’s median price is up nearly 3 percent for the first 11 months of the year compared with the same period in 2006.

Consecutive local price drops can be attributed to homes listed competitively so that they attract buyers and sell, said Coldwell Banker agent Margo Hass Klein.

Dipping prices aren’t a concern, she said, because they primarily hurt older homeowners who are selling for the last time or those who borrowed against their equity and owe more than they can sell for, she said.

Most sellers are also buyers and so will transfer their equity to a new home, she said.

“They’re not paying as much, but they’re not receiving as much,” she said.

For months, agents have been pushing the message that now is the time to buy.

Not so for Ana Sierra-Jonsson.

She moved to Tacoma in September and looked in Puyallup, North Tacoma and Lakewood for a two- to-three bedroom home. After she and her husband, Lynn Jonsson, viewed about 100 properties, they decided instead to rent for one to two years.

“There are such wild price adjustments going on; we thought time was on our side,” Sierra-Jonsson, 51, said. “We want to see where things end up, because we certainly don’t want to end up paying too much for a house.”

Around the region, King and Kitsap counties also saw prices dip, 2.9 percent and 6.2 percent respectively.

Wanda Coats, a broker for Windermere’s Lakewood office, said mortgage interest rates that have recently dropped, combined with a good supply of homes, will motivate post-holidays buyers. There were 7,981 homes for sale in the county in November, 32.8 percent more than the same month last year, according to the listing service.

“People are going to realize it’s time to buy, but I think it’s going to be toward the New Year,” she said.

Michael and Janelle Hanks are feeling the brunt of today’s slower market.

The couple listed a Thea’s Landing penthouse condominium at $379,000 – just under the price of two recently sold units – in May, just before buying a house in Gig Harbor.

“We get lots of showings but no offers,” said Michael Hanks, 30.

So, they are carrying two mortgage payments while they debate listing strategy on the one-bedroom condo. The couple has offered to pay homeowner’s dues for a year as a buyer’s incentive and lowered the price over the summer to $365,000.

“If we got offers that were really low, it would give us a clue that it was overpriced. I think we’re priced OK. I think it’s just a bad time in the market to put something on the market,” he said.

Some parts of Pierce County are faring better than others:

• Six of the county’s 17 areas tracked by the MLS saw prices increase in November compared with the same month in 2006, including the areas of DuPont (10 percent), Central Tacoma (9.3 percent), and Gig Harbor (0.8 percent).

• Sales declined year-to-date in most areas. They were even for the month in the Roy-McKenna area and University Place.

• In the Fife-Milton area, home sales fell in November by more than half, from 85 to 41 units.

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source: thenewstribune.com

Housing market’s on way up, agents group says

WASHINGTON – Bucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real estate agents said Monday that the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales.

The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million – the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year, down from 6.48 million last year.

The Realtor group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month’s prediction of 5.69 million.

Numerous other economists, however, are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy sinks into a recession.

Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight, forecasts that home sales will drop from 5.66 million this year to 4.7 million in 2008 – 1 million fewer home sales than the real estate group’s forecast.

“With the economy and job growth slowing … it is hard to believe that we have hit bottom,” Newport said in a note to clients Monday. “Our view is that prices need to drop further, and that housing activity will hit bottom about the middle of 2008.”

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source: thenewstribune.com

Rise in mortgage rates bad news for would-be home buyers

WASHINGTON – Mortgage rates, which had been sliding, went up this week, disappointing news to would-be home buyers.

Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.11 percent. That was up from last week’s rate of 5.96 percent, which was the lowest in more than two years. Until this week, rates on 30-year mortgages had been falling or holding steady each week since the middle of October.

The pickup in mortgage rates around the country comes as some prospective home buyers struggle with a credit crunch that has made it more difficult to secure financing for homes and other big-ticket purchases. The worsening credit crunch has aggravated the housing slump, which is weighing heavily on national economic activity. The odds of a recession have grown.

A year ago, 30-year mortgages stood at 6.12 percent. Rates on 15-year mortgages were at 5.86 percent a year ago, while five-year ARMS averaged 5.92 percent and one-year ARMs were at 5.45 percent.

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source: thenewstribune.com

30-year, fixed-rate mortgages fall below the 6 percent level

WASHINGTON – Rates on 30-year mortgages fell sharply again this week, dropping to the lowest level in more than two years.

Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.96 percent. That was down from 6.10 percent last week and was the lowest rate since the week of Sept. 29, 2005, when they averaged 5.91 percent.

Analysts attributed the decline to worries about what the severe slump in housing and the lingering credit crunch could do to consumer confidence and the overall economy.

“With lower consumer spending and personal income gains in October, interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities fell lower this week and mortgage rates followed,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

A year ago, 30-year mortgages stood at 6.11 percent.

The boom-to-bust situation has been especially hard on homeowners with spotty credit and lower incomes. Foreclosures have surged as many overstretched borrowers have been unable to make higher monthly payments once their low introductory “teaser” rates have reset to higher levels. The Bush administration on Thursday announced a plan with the mortgage industry to freeze the initial introductory rates for a period of five years for certain subprime borrowers.

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source: thenewstribune.com

Call grows for mortgage reforms

WASHINGTON – Support is growing on several fronts in Washington for mortgage industry reforms and homeowner assistance programs with broader potential impact than the Bush administration’s plan to freeze interest rates on a small percentage of home loans.

So far, the government has pursued modest responses to this year’s surge in mortgage defaults and home foreclosures. But mounting foreclosures, fears of a recession and an upcoming election are prompting a range of more aggressive proposals from Congress, the Federal Reserve and consumer groups.

The Bush administration favors restraint, with President Bush saying Monday that “the government should never bail out lenders.” Still, the president noted that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is working with Rep. Barney Frank, D.-Mass., on a plan to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to finance larger loans, in conjunction with tighter regulation of the government sponsored companies.

Several housing-related bills had been stalled in Congress for much of the year.

On Friday, though, the Senate overwhelmingly approved bills that would allow more government-backed loans to borrowers with weak credit and permit homeowners to receive tax-free mortgage forgiveness from their lenders. The IRS currently taxes any loan forgiveness as income.

These two measures have bipartisan support and appear likely to be signed by the president next year.

Other proposals are more divisive and likely to be the subject of heated debate in Congress.

Today, the Federal Reserve is expected to propose a new set of reforms for the home-loan market, including requiring lenders to borrowers with spotty credit to set aside money for property taxes and insurance, and restricting loans that do not require proof of a borrower’s income.

However, the Fed’s actions are unlikely to diminish Democrats’ desire for stricter protections for borrowers. Analysts say House and Senate Democrats are likely to push for more stringent restrictions next year.

“The drumbeat of bad news about mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures will keep the issue at the front of the policy debate,” said Douglas Elmendorf, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Several proposals are already being floated:

• Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, suggested in a TV interview over the weekend that more government intervention was needed to help borrowers. “Cash is available and we should use that in larger amounts, as is necessary, to solve the problems of the stress of this,” Greenspan said Sunday during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week,” offering few specifics.

• The Center for American Progress, a liberal public policy think tank, last week proposed the creation of a government agency, the Family Foreclosure Rescue Corp., that would help borrowers whose home value has declined to less than that of their mortgage by providing fixed-rate loans and issuing insured bonds to pay for the efforts.

• Democrats and consumer groups are advancing legislation to bar abusive lending practices and to allow bankruptcy judges to reduce the size of a borrowers’ home loans in court. Advocates say this change could help 500,000 borrowers or more, compared with around 250,000 likely to be helped by the Bush administration’s plan to freeze introductory interest rates for some borrowers.

Some Republicans and lending industry lobbyists warn that an overreaction in Washington will limit access to mortgage loans just when they are needed most.

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source: thenewstribune.com